Disaster Events

Should India gear up for cyclone Kyant? (Update)

Update: October 27, 2016

The deep depression over west central Bay of Bengal moved further west-southwestwards in past 6 hours with speed 17 kmph. At about 12 ‘oclock on October 27, 2016 it lay over west central Bay of Bengal, near latitude 15.7o N and longitude 85.5o  E about 320 km southeast of Vishakhapatnam and 460 km east of Machilipatnam and 600 km east-northeast of Nellore.

It is most likely to move west-southwestwards and weaken further into a depression during next 24 hours.

Forecast track:

Date/time (UTC) Position (lat. 0n/ long. 0e) Maximum sustained Surface wind speed (kmph) Category of cyclonic Disturbance
27-10-2016/0000 15.7/85.5 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep depression
27-10-2016/0600 15.3/84.6 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep depression
27-10-2016/1200 15.0/83.8 45-55 gusting to 65 Depression
27-10-2016/1800 14.7/83.0 35-45 gusting to 55 Depression
28-10-2016/0000 14.4/82.0 25-35 gusting to 45 Low

The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is moderate (10-15 knots) around the system centre and increases towards southwest.

An anticyclonic circulation lies over north Arabian Sea. Under the influence of this anti-cyclonic circulation, the system is expected to move west-southwestwards during next 24 hours.

Majority of models IMD MME also support the above track forecast. Further, the anticyclonic circulation to the northwest of the system in middle and upper tropospheric levels is helping dry air incursion into the system from land surface. Under this scenario, the system will weaken further into a depression during next 24 hours. Majority of numerical models and dynamical statistical model of IMD also suggest weakening of the system.

kyant-27-10-2016

Warning issued by IMD: –

  1. Wind: Squally winds speed reaching 35-45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph is very likely to prevail along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hours.
  2. Sea condition: Sea condition will be rough along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hours.
  3. Fishermen Warning: Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off Andhra Pradesh coasts during next 48 hours.
  4. Rainfall:
  • Light to moderate rainfall (1-4 cm) at many places is very likely to occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hours.
  • Light to moderate rainfall at many places with heavy rainfall (65mm or more) at isolated places very likely over south coastal Andhra Pradesh on 28th to 30th October 2016 and over north coastal Tamil Nadu from 28th evening to 31st October 2016.

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The deep depression over east-central Bay of Bengal moved west-north westwards in past six hours. It is presently centred (at 5:30 am on October 25, 2016) over east-central Bay of Bengal, 540 km north-northwest of Port Blair and 470 km west-southwest of Yangon. The system is very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 12 hours.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) claims that it will initially move west-north westwards and then west to west-south westwards towards west-central Bay of Bengal during next 72 hours.

Dr. Ajit Tyagi, Former Director General, India Meteorological Department (IMD) speaking with G’nY informed that, “The depression has shown a variety of tracks and has been changing since its detection. Earlier it was moving towards the Myanmar coast but now the predictions suggest that it will come near the Odisha and Tamil Nadu coast. The forecast has not been accurate and there is a need to take a closer look at this depression.”

deep-depression

The red dot signifies the position of the cyclone as on October 25, 2016.

On the other hand, Mr. P V Ramanamurthy, DEE, Andhra Pradesh State Development Planning Society (APSDPS) told G’nY that, “This is one event which I consider well behaved as everyone had predicted a re-curvature. The only thing now we are now observing is whether it will cross Andhra Pradesh or Odisha coast. In fact European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and IMD both predicted a re-curvature for this event.”

Warning issued by IMD on October 25, 2016: –

  • Wind: Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is very likely to commence along and off Odisha and West Bengal coasts from October 27, 2016.
  • Fishermen Warning: Fishermen are advised not to venture into sea along and off Odisha and West Bengal coast from October 27 onwards.

Forecast track and intensity of the system are given in the table below: –

Date / Time (IST) Position (lat. oN / long. oE) Maximum Sustained Surface Wind Speed (kmph) Category of Cyclonic Disturbance
25-10-2016/0530 16.9/91.7 50-60 gusting to 70 Deep Depression
25-10-2016/1130 17.0/91.1 55-65 gusting to 75 Deep Depression
25-10-2016/1730 17.1/91.5 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
25-10-2016/2330 17.2/89.9 60-70 gusting to 80 Cyclonic Storm
26-10-2016/0530 17.3/89.3 70-80 gusting to 90 Cyclonic Storm
26-10-2016/1730 17.5/87.7 70-80 gusting to 90 Cyclonic Storm
27-10-2016/0530 17.5/86.1 75-85 gusting to 95 Cyclonic Storm
27-10-2016/1730 17.3/84.5 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm
28-10-2016/0530 17.0/83.0 80-90 gusting to 100 Cyclonic Storm

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