Tropical storm forecast models conventionally use static sea surface temperature (SST), assuming its temporal changes are not significant in forecast. However, oceanic processes such as upwelling, currents and eddies, significantly modulate SST even at short time scales. Such changes have the potential to influence the planetary boundary layer. Eminent climate scientists, Morris A Bender and Issac Ginis have shown that inclusion of initial conditions with oceanic mesoscale features can improve hurricane/cyclone intensity forecasts. Scientific evidence thus supports better forecasts with coupled forecast systems and several forecast centres across the globe depend on such systems. In line with the international efforts, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and two of its institutes, ESSO-INCOIS and ESSO-IMD, established a state-of-the-art coupled forecasting system for cyclones arising in the Indian Ocean in collaboration with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of USA. In the present article, we explore the relevance of the system and its performance in achieving this goal.

M Mohapatra, Director General, India Meteorological Department (IMD), talks to G’nY about successes in monitoring and prediction as also the associated challenges of climate related extreme events.

There has been a paradigm shift in cyclone warning services in India due to the modernisation programme and other initiatives taken by the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

The monitoring, prediction and forecast of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the northern Indian Ocean (NIO) basin goes back 150 years. A historical account of the developments is presented here, along with the present status of early warning systems.

Cyclone Phailin crossed into Odisha and adjoining northern Andhra Pradesh near Gopalpur on October 12, 2013. India Meteorological Department (IMD) accurately predicted the genesis, intensity, track and point and time of landfall well in advance. As a result, the loss of human lives due to the cyclone was reduced to just 22 persons.

Forecasting deals with the prediction of genesis, location/track and intensity of a tropical cyclone. It also aims at predicting associated adverse weather such as heavy rains, gales, high waves, storm surges and coastal inundation.

A tropical cyclone (TC) causes three types of adverse weather conditions, heavy rain; gale winds; and, storm surge on landfall. The monitoring and forecasting of heavy rainfall due to TC is analysed here.